WiiRanty #10: Is Wii the Next Atari?
Prepare yourselves for quite possibly the longest WiiRanty ever, guys. I’ve been pondering lately if the Wii might meet a similar situation to the Atari, though not in the way many of you might expect. I originally posted this on the forums of The Escapist, and it was met with a very positive reaction and excellent discussion. So, I have also chosen to share it with you guys.
If you would like to submit a WiiRanty yourself, e-mail it over to ccesarano [at] wii60 [dot] com.
Is Wii the Next Atari?
by Chris Cesarano (a.k.a. Grohdinger)
I know a lot of you are already prepped to disagree with me. Some of you may even link the Atari with the video game crash around 1982 (or was it ‘83?). However, I don’t think it’s too far off a concept, though it may not be understood immediately.
Everyone knows that the Wii is selling big right now. Even Nintendo didn’t expect this level of success. The hardcore gaming audience is eating it up, the casual gaming audience is absorbing it, and even the mainstream non-gamers are grabbing onto it. A lot of people believe Nintendo figured out how to reach out to the audience no other company could get to latch onto gaming. So, it can only go up from here, right?
I don’t think so. Yes, the Wii is selling a lot, but five or six years down the line, will the Wii2 sell just as well? What happened when people that already had an Atari were told to go out and buy another newer, better console? Did they buy another one, or did they just keep what they had?
Now, the two systems cannot be completely compared, as in the late 70’s and early 80’s it was unheard of to buy a device only to replace it years later. Even the eight track and cassette tapes didn’t end the existence of the record player, as people still kept those and would still buy their albums on records. You only bought a new car when it broke down and couldn’t be repaired anymore. So why would you get rid of a perfectly good video game console?
Nowadays, we’re replacing things constantly. You’re swapping out that four or five year old computer for a new one. That iPod? Old news. Just get the new one with color and video. Why keep that old Playstation 2 when you could get the Playstation 3, Wii or Xbox 360?
Nonetheless, just because the culture and manner of technology has changed doesn’t mean the mindsets of the people have. The Nintendo Wii has a lot of shovelware on it right now, including a lot of companies trying to just slap on random party games and other such tripe just to make a quick buck. However, I don’t think they’re getting nearly as much return. Not many of them, at least. If you look at the attach rate of games to the systems, Wii is trailing behind even the PS3, which has the least amount of good (exclusive) titles out. Could we perhaps take from this that, while a large number of systems are selling, a smaller number of software sales are?
Unfortunately, I seem to be horrible at searching for sales numbers for the past few months, because all I can find is that Xbox 360 won for September (which everyone knows the reason why). Nonetheless, even if you check the monthly top GameFly lists, you’ll often see Xbox 360 games and their respected versions topping those of other consoles, and it isn’t even unusual to see the Nintendo DS beating out the Wii. When it comes to software, the Wii only really climbs to the top when a title like Metroid Prime 3 or Super Paper Mario comes out, which is once in a blue moon compared to the Xbox 360, which has taken the PS2’s place as having the greatest number of titles this console generation (I’d argue it has the largest variety as well, but I know many would disagree).
I guess by now I should be getting to the point, which is a lot of the mainstream market that is boosting the success of the Wii so high isn’t going to be going out to buy many titles. Chances are, they bought the Wii because of the spectacle of it. It’s the latest new thing. It’s a change,a difference. It’s something great to turn on when you have friends around…but that’s it. That is also precisely what the Atari was to the same sort of people. It was the latest new thing. It was a change, a difference. It was something great to turn on when you have friends around. They bought it because of the spectacle of it…and after that, if they kept it around, they just tossed it over to their kids. Some stuck with the systems to become some of our older hardcore gamers, but for the most part, the Atari was more of a passing cultural phase.
When the next iteration of the Wii comes around, which I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes around in four or five years, I imagine that the majority of the mainstream market that grabbed the Wii is going to snub the Wii 2 for one simple reason: “I already enjoy my Wii enough, I don’t see why I should get another one”. The same reason they didn’t move on past the Atari, and the very same reason they still have that old, black and white iPod, only replacing it with a new one once the old one breaks.
The saddest part is, a lot of hardcore gamers feel as if Nintendo is leaving them in the dust to favor this very same mainstream market. Personally, I feel that the focus on party and casual games may eventually die down, but then again, it may not. A lot of developers feel as if Nintendo made a mistake by keeping the Wii’s power so weak, as it cannot handle the same physics, A.I. and other processing technologies that the Xbox 360 and PS3 can. In the end, the gamers go where the games are unless you’re a die hard fan, which is why the Xbox did so poorly yet the Xbox 360 is kicking the crap out of the PS3. If the developers discover that they can’t buy the mainstream appeal on the Wii and can’t get the hardcore appeal either, they’ll retreat back to Microsoft.
So, if the next Wii is snubbed by both hardcore and mainstream, then…well, then Nintendo’s success was short lived, wasn’t it?
October 25th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
I actually know more people that say “I already enjoy my PS2 enough, I don’t see why I should get a PS3� than anything else.
October 25th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Theoretically, this could defenitely happen. However, it’s all up to Nintendo whether this happens with Wii or not. Thiere’s fantastic games coming down the pipe line but they aren’t being promoted. Hardcore gamers need to be hyped about something before they’ll play it, they’re a finiky bunch. Yet titles like Bwii and Metroid have virtually no advertising so the hardcore gamers are convinced that those games aren’t as good as Halo 3 or their other 360 games and there in lies the problem. Nintendo’s making the Wii seem like a place that’s not for the Hardcore audience to enjoy gaming, which simply shouldn’t be true.
They can go for the expanded audience but leaving the audience behind that picks up the most software? Not a good idea. Hopefully they’ll work it out in the future.
October 25th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
It depends what the specs of the Wii 2 (if that is what Nintendo will call their next console). Wii fans love the fact that most of the games are interactive and you have to move around to play them. Unless, Nintendo comes up with some interesting new features in their next console (however, many years from now) if it offers nothing new other then graphics they will be in trouble. As has been proven by another system on the market.
October 25th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
“Nowadays, we’re replacing things constantly. That iPod? Old news…”
“…and the very same reason they still have that old, black and white iPod, only replacing it with a new one once the old one breaks.”
zOMFG TIME PARADOX!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
I agree. The only good Wii games are the franchises that have been helping nintendo since they got big. I liked the Wii at first but I got really bored of it. It seems like it sold so much cause people were so dazzled by some motion sensor interactivity with your TV. And honestly I think Wii fit is a terrible Idea, If you’ve seen that Wiifit parody on youtube you know what I mean.
October 25th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I can see where you’re coming from, initially I was very sceptical about the Wii then I got caught in the hype and bought one and now I’m slightly bored by it.
I’ve always enjoyed my FPS’s on consoles and seeing the 360 with all of its flashy graphics and physics I’ve nearly bought one a few times now. I know the Wii can’t support the same in depth physics (and at times I seriously wish it could!) but I believe that the motion control has a lot to bring us still. I said I enjoy console FPS’s, but the accuracy and aiming is always a bit dodgy so I end up enjoying some games on the PC more (eg HL2). The Wiimote and nunchuck is a great inbetween for me, better aiming but with controller style movement and buttons. Having played Pat Glynns HL2 Wiimote mod on PC and RE4 on Wii (near perfect controls in my opinion) I can say that there is hope for the Wii yet!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Have you noticed how the only real change in xbox to xbox 3shitty is the fact that it got better graphics? I think the wii has a lot of room to improve their. If you’re saying this about the wii but didn’t even mention how the Ps3 is the same shit as the ps2 only alot more expensive than you’re obviously a little fanboy bitch! And thankyou for the point of the ipod, i mean, what the fuck is this kid on? Xbox 360 has the most variety? damn right i disagree with you, you ball licker! FPS over and over again! you’re so fuckin dumb!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
Wow, you have explained yourself in a manner that is most educational.
Firstly, I can’t stand anyone that claims the PS3 is the same thing as the PS2. They aren’t. If they were, you wouldn’t have the backwards compatibility issues that the PS3 had when it launched. Internally, the PS3 is a completely different machine running on a totally different operating system, and the very notion that it is “merely a step up” from the predecessor is horribly, horribly flawed.
Second, technically the improved graphics weren’t the only change in the Xbox 360, as it can also handle much better A.I. and physics, partly due to the multi-threading capabilities granted by multiple processors. However, the SDK itself is even easier to use, and even more so XNA makes development on the system easier than ever. Still, the biggest step Microsoft is taking is to make sure they help developers out, give them better tools, evolve Xbox Live (yeah, you seem to have skipped over the online component and how much it has changed), and try and bring out more AAA titles than the previous generation had. So far, it has worked.
As for the FPS comment, you should look at all the platforms currently. The last truly good game on the Wii was Metroid Prime 3, an FPS. Before that? RE4, a third person shooter. There’s a great glut of shooters at the moment in the entire gaming industry, but there’s more on the horizon. Assassin’s Creed is coming next month, with games like Fable 2, Brutal Legend and Ninja Gaiden 2 soon to follow. There’s also Xbox Live Arcade. So, yes, at the moment the Xbox 360 has the largest variety. Or, maybe I should say largest variety of games worth buying.
Of course, I’m not going to change your viewpoint. Intelligence is obviously lost on you.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
yeah You hit it right on the head i bout a wii to replace my gamecube and while one of the reasons i chose it over a 360 was for the cool controls the biggest reason was that i liked the nintendo franchises like mario, metroid, and zelda but also because with my gamecube i found that nintendo filtered out alot of the crap games that i saw in abundance in other systems (mostly the ps2) but now that i have it over a year has passed and i have only bought two games for it Legend of zelda and metroid prime why? because those were the only two games i knew id get my $50 out of. I dont proclaim to be a hardcore gamer but if nintendo wants to keep my intrest they need to cut the gimiky crap and start making games that i can enjoy and replay. its all nice to think about “casual gamers” but when they get bored and move on if you havent satisfied and kept hold of your hardcore fanbase your skrewed. at the very least i hope for the wii to go the way of the ds, crap pouring off the shelves every day but in the midst of all that there is a game that is worth the money that shines forth at least every two months to tide me over and prevent me from shitting a coniption fit becasue i spent my money on an entertainment system that doesnt entertain me.
October 25th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
wow. I never thought about this until I read this. It could happen and that’s a scary thought.
October 25th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
intelligence isn’t lost on me, and i like the other systems… i’m just a very angry person, but controls are changed consistently with nintendo and PS and Xbox have made very minor changes for their controllers. yes, i know that online has been improved, and i thought about including that in my bitchfest…. but online could have been improved on previous systems too…. like i don’t know… if they didn’t charge for it…? well, i’m glad we’re going forward.. aren’t you microsoft. i also love the “new” controller for PS3. it doesn’t remind me in any way of the fucking first Playstation controller that’s fuckin 2 generations back. nice, real fuckin nice!
October 26th, 2007 at 12:08 am
“Yes, the Wii is selling a lot, but five or six years down the line, will the Wii2 sell just as well?”
That has nothing to do with how successful the Wii will be, not to mention it’s a pretty poor assumption that a “Wii2″ would follow, given that no Nintendo home console has been like the last.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:11 am
“Intelligence is obviously lost on you.”
Classy. “Here’s my opinion, and if you disagree, you don’t appreciate intelligence.” How old are you?
October 26th, 2007 at 12:52 am
“gamers go where the games are unless you’re a die hard fan, which is why the Xbox did so poorly yet the Xbox 360 is kicking the crap out of the PS3″
Grammatical problems aside (”which” is modifying the “die hard fan” point, not the “gamers go where the games are” point), this doesn’t work. Both PS2 and Gamecube had a pretty terrible lineup of launch titles compared to that of the first Xbox. The PS2 really benefitted from getting out of the gate first, as now has the 360. It’s also worth being in mind the price difference between the systems. The game lineup is significant, but can hardly be the first factor attributed to 360’s current success (Perfect Dark Zero anyone?).
October 26th, 2007 at 12:54 am
Not to mention that if we’re taking backwards compatibility into account, the 360 probably has the smallest library out of the three systems.
October 26th, 2007 at 5:51 am
lol, some of you guys need to join the forums, we havne’t had a heated debate like this in a while.
October 26th, 2007 at 7:21 am
““Intelligence is obviously lost on you.â€?
Classy. “Here’s my opinion, and if you disagree, you don’t appreciate intelligence.â€? How old are you?”
My point was more on how everything he said was a complete insult at me, which is not intelligently debating. It has nothing to do with the fact that he disagrees with me. In fact, a lot of people have even shown me how Atari and Wii are in very, very different situations, so no matter what the comparison dies. However, the core message itself still stands: what will happen next for Nintendo? Will they continue to be as successful?
I don’t think they will, but that’s merely my prediction. Time will tell.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Guess that means Nintendo will have to be creative with their “wii2″. Perhaps they will attempt even further connection between the game and the player?
Or maybe the controller will be a helmet in which when we put it on we are plugged into the game sort of like the Matrix? :p XD
October 26th, 2007 at 11:40 am
1) I doubt the new Wii will be called Wii2, Nintendo never do that. Wii+ makes more sense, or maybe WiiSP.
2) They could easily improve on the Wii Remote. Firstly, more battery life would be good, and so would six axis of motion-sensitivity instead of three. A better sound chip for the Wii Remote would be good as well. And the B for the Wii Remote and the Z button for the Nunchuck could be analogue too, and the Nunchuck could have a mic for online play.
Also, why have Microsoft made the Xbox 360’s CPU 6 times faster than it’s GPU, instead of having the CPU twice as fast like usual? It’s the same with Sony and the PS3 too.
October 27th, 2007 at 12:08 am
“My point was more on how everything he said was a complete insult at me, which is not intelligently debating. It has nothing to do with the fact that he disagrees with me.”
So instead of rising above insults, the best response is to sink to his level?
[QUOTE]what will happen next for Nintendo? Will they continue to be as successful? I don’t think they will, but that’s merely my prediction. Time will tell.”
Basing this prediction on the Atari model is rather silly - it’s like comparing today’s Honda with the Model T Ford. In fact, basing your prediction on the current performance of the Wii is even more silly, especially considering its surprising success - and also considering the relatively poor performance of the Gamecube.
There’s no harm in making predictions, but your rationale is utterly lacking.
October 28th, 2007 at 1:41 am
It may seem lame to list a bunch of good games coming to the Wii, but I’m going to do it anyways:
Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbados Treasure
Battalion Wars II
Manhunt 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Super Mario Galaxy
Tomb Raider: Anniversary
Medal of Honor Heroes 2
Geometry Wars: Galaxies
NiGHTS: Journey of Dreams
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
SoulCaliber Legends
Endless Ocean
Super Smash Brothers Brawl
No More Heroes
Mario Kart for Wii
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Monster Hunter 3
Spore
The final two make an important point about the Wii drawing the attention of developers who will give the Wii staying power. All of us at Wii60 already know about Capcom’s decision to change Monster Hunter 3’s exclusivity to the Wii, but Will Wright, one of the greatest developers of all time, just confirmed Spore for the Wii.
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/49653
He says that the Wii is the only next-gen system because it’s the only one that seems truly different from its predecessor. If the Wii gets hardcore games like the ones I mentioned above, it will maintain its appeal through this generation.
The only obvious flaw in your argument is that Nintendo’s next system obviously won’t be anything like the Wii. Every one of their systems is different. They are, after all, the most innovative in their market.
October 29th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
??? Says:
“October 26th, 2007 at 11:40 am
1) I doubt the new Wii will be called Wii2, Nintendo never do that. Wii+ makes more sense, or maybe WiiSP.
2) They could easily improve on the Wii Remote. Firstly, more battery life would be good, and so would six axis of motion-sensitivity instead of three. A better sound chip for the Wii Remote would be good as well. And the B for the Wii Remote and the Z button for the Nunchuck could be analogue too, and the Nunchuck could have a mic for online play.
Also, why have Microsoft made the Xbox 360’s CPU 6 times faster than it’s GPU, instead of having the CPU twice as fast like usual? It’s the same with Sony and the PS3 too.
punchypal Says:
October 27th, 2007 at 12:08 am
“My point was more on how everything he said was a complete insult at me, which is not intelligently debating. It has nothing to do with the fact that he disagrees with me.�
So instead of rising above insults, the best response is to sink to his level?
[QUOTE]what will happen next for Nintendo? Will they continue to be as successful? I don’t think they will, but that’s merely my prediction. Time will tell.�
Basing this prediction on the Atari model is rather silly - it’s like comparing today’s Honda with the Model T Ford. In fact, basing your prediction on the current performance of the Wii is even more silly, especially considering its surprising success - and also considering the relatively poor performance of the Gamecube.
There’s no harm in making predictions, but your rationale is utterly lacking.
u2rocksbaby Says:
October 28th, 2007 at 1:41 am
It may seem lame to list a bunch of good games coming to the Wii, but I’m going to do it anyways:
Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbados Treasure
Battalion Wars II
Manhunt 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Super Mario Galaxy
Tomb Raider: Anniversary
Medal of Honor Heroes 2
Geometry Wars: Galaxies
NiGHTS: Journey of Dreams
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
SoulCaliber Legends
Endless Ocean
Super Smash Brothers Brawl
No More Heroes
Mario Kart for Wii
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Monster Hunter 3
Spore
The final two make an important point about the Wii drawing the attention of developers who will give the Wii staying power. All of us at Wii60 already know about Capcom’s decision to change Monster Hunter 3’s exclusivity to the Wii, but Will Wright, one of the greatest developers of all time, just confirmed Spore for the Wii.
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/49653
He says that the Wii is the only next-gen system because it’s the only one that seems truly different from its predecessor. If the Wii gets hardcore games like the ones I mentioned above, it will maintain its appeal through this generation.
The only obvious flaw in your argument is that Nintendo’s next system obviously won’t be anything like the Wii. Every one of their systems is different. They are, after all, the most innovative in their market.”
I completely agree with you.
November 2nd, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I agree with Alex. Most developers were totally caught off gaurd, which led to the port-happy initial lineup. I also caution people against using message boards and comment threads as indicators of success. After all, using that as evidence would point to a total meltdown level failure for Nintendo, since everyone outside of very Nintendo-centric forums rip the system now.
Because of the hot start, you are going to see bigger, better titles in year two and especially year three. After all, this is the third holiday season for the Xbox 360, and it is no accident that you are now seeing the megaton titles like Bioshock, Halo 3, and Mass Effect. And the 360 didn’t even have the start the Wii had. Not even close.
December 1st, 2007 at 10:53 am
I wouldn’t worry about this. Nintendo is already thinking about this issue.
Here is how they deal with it.
First, they don’t need to release a new console on the same timeframe that traditional gamers would want. They can wait a while longer since they pretty much have a lock on the “casual gamer”, and for the hardcore gamer they will stick around due to developers continuing to do interesting things with the new controls.
Second, nintendo has a ton of money to pour into R&D, and from what i have read they have already researched just about everything you or I could think of for gaming.
That means nintendo has time and money to develop the next big thing.
When nintnedo resleases the next console it won’t just be the same thing with better graphics. It will be something new that everyone will want. If they just do a Wii upgrade then they will have a problem, but nintendo knows better given some of the comments they have made and how they are playing with ideas like Wii fit.
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:08 am
If they keep doing the same thing, Wii2, 3, etc. Then yes, I completely agree that this is a possibility. But from the interviews I’ve read, the next-gen Nintendo system will be HD-ready, a focus on next-gen graphics, etc. I assume the Wii-controls will also be available, but not necessary (just like they are now). Imagine a system with the graphical power superior to that of the ps3 and 360, with the OPTION of the wii controls. That’s what it sounds like it will be.